Reuters | Mar 11,2012 | 23:45 Jordan Times
OCCUPIED JERUSALEM — Although Israel can expect a barrage of missiles from various fronts if it attacks Iran, the response might be less catastrophic than some predict, with Middle East turmoil distracting old foes.
There is also a gathering view in Israel, expressed with growing insistence by senior officials, that the resulting conflict would be a price worth paying for stymieing Iran’s nuclear programme.
An increasingly tough-talking Israel is threatening to take military action, with or without US support, if the Iranians continue to defy pressure to curb their contested projects.
The question of what follows such a strike is becoming ever more central to both public and private discussions, suggesting that Israel’s security elite is now looking well beyond the initial operation to evaluate a strategy for the fallout.
“The issue today is less the [military] option itself. The real debate is what happens the day after,” said Michael Herzog, a one-time head of strategic planning for the Israeli army.
“The number one discussion is what happens once the military option is applied. We are assuming the Iranians will respond violently, but what kind of escalation will we have?”
Iran has warned it will strike back if it comes under fire and military planners in Israel think its allies, most notably Hizbollah in Lebanon, would probably leap into the fray.
Tehran has an unknown number of ballistic missiles that could reach Israel, while Hizbollah holds up to 50,000 rockets, some of which could undoubtedly hit densely populated Tel Aviv.
But some local experts, perhaps looking to calm a jittery domestic audience, are questioning how much damage Iran and its proxies could inflict, suggesting that Israel’s growing anti-missile defence shield should provide strong cover.
“The apocalyptic predictions of what will happen if Israel attacks Iran should be moderated,” Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser, told Israel Radio this week.
http://jordantimes.com/eyeing-iran-israel-focuses-on-the-day-after