Source: (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 3.Sept. 2012).
(please excuse the language: ‘google translate’ is being used from the original German article. Better translation to follow, Inshallah).
The Syrian civil war can be seen through from the outside only with difficulty, because it constantly changes its face. There were four phases so far.
The first phase was from March to the end of April 2011, the time of peaceful demonstrations. Encouraged by the Arab Spring, not just members of the Sunni neglected underclass demanded more freedom, democracy and social justice. Each of their claims are legitimate. Even the call for a resignation of the president. Western opposition demanding something too.
Problematic are their stone throwing and attacks on police stations. But we know from the Western democracies that Well-trained police officers know how to deal with it. The Syrian security forces did not. As early March fathers protested against the detention of their children, the intelligence effort. There are many dead. The Syrian President shall bear the political responsibility for this. He created the dead as martyrs – coupled with extensive government services. He meets his parents and tried to calm the conflict. But there are forces that do not want a sedative. End of April, at a time as money and weapons from outside come into the picture. The main sponsor is like in Libya, the small Qatar, whose Emir sees the Arab revolution as profiling chance. He would love to take the place of Saudi Arabia, and most important U.S. ally in the region.
In phase two, from May to August 2011, you experience the first armed fighters. Including snipers shoot curiously both protesters and security forces. They heat up the situation dramatically. That there are these provocateurs, is largely undisputed, disputed is who they work for. For domestic or foreign intelligence for rebel? Each country has its own theory.
Will demonstrate dangerous, but the rallies are larger. The regime organized marches, in which up to one million people participate, members of the Sunni middle and upper class, Alawites and Christians. They too are calling for democracy, but with Assad. To larger battles occur rarely. The rebels have only light weapons and the state security forces are clearly inferior.
In the third phase, from August to the end of 2011, the rebel armed security force present as peaceful protesters. But they never really play that role. Where they occur with protesters who deliberately seek confrontation with the security forces. This strike back hard. Rebels, civilians, soldiers and police die. At the same extremist rebels are increasingly relying on Alawite civilians who regard them as representative of the overall regime. Alawites are taking revenge on Sunnis. The fights are sectarian.
In the fourth phase, from early 2012 to the present, to become independent, is the aim of the armed rebels. And more radical. Too many friends and relatives have fallen. More and more weapons are flowing into the country. Beginning in March and heavy weapons from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The U.S., whose Central Command for the Middle East is in Qatar give political help. Nothing happens without their approval. Outwardly, they remain in the background, it is a war by remote control. There is heavy fighting with government security forces, who have also radicalized.
The first days of the democracy demonstrators are marginalized. From the peaceful protests of part of the population a merciless civil war between supporters of the government and supporters of the armed opposition has become. The government forces bombed mercilessly residential areas where hiding rebels. You kill it, civilians. The rebels execute increasingly ‘hostile’ civilians. Some work closely with al-Qaeda terror squads. Both sides have lost all sense of proportion. There are no decent wars.
The slogan ‘Assad kill his own people’ goes past the reality of mutual murder. Both sides kill the ‘own’ people. One-third of those killed are likely to be security forces, rebel third, one-third civilian. Government and rebels probably kill as many civilians. As in most civil wars. The special tragedy of this fratricidal war is that both sides are just puppets of a big, cynical power game. The main task is to divide the Muslims of the Middle East seems to be to kill each other. As once in Lawrence of Arabia. Divide et impera, divide and conquer!
This power game is played on four levels.
On the first level, the U.S. is trying Qatar and Saudi Arabia to overthrow the Iranian ally Assad to thereby weaken the influence of Tehran in the Middle East. Iran, they have become by Bush’s misguided war in Iraq too powerful.
At the second level are fighting extremist Sunni and Al-Qaeda fighters from around the world against the ‘heretical’ Shias and Alawitentum.
On the third attempt in the United States continue the East-West conflict, to oust Russia from the Middle East. Moscow is fighting back.
On the fourth, finally the government and opposition wrestle with great blood sacrifice for power in Syria. The fighters do not realize that they end up once again to acknowledge the supremacy of the other. And be betrayed again.
The U.S. government tried to cover up this diabolical, knotted into one another proxy wars by disinformation in the style of the Iraq war. It tells the tale of the democratic uprising of a people ought to support the U.S.. But democracy is to the United States anywhere in the Arab world. The United States do not intend to make their oil supply from the result of democratic elections in the Middle East depends. This strategy is intended as chaos in the Afghanistan and Iraq war to an end at any point. You will have for the entire Middle East devastating. And like a boomerang boomerang on us.
Only the United States as a hegemonic power in the Middle East could solve the Syrian node. Through direct negotiations with all parties. That Assad has blood on their hands, they can not really interfere. Even Obama has blood on his hands. The blood of thousands of Afghans and Pakistanis. And many Syrians. Instead of fueling the Syrian tragedy Barack Obama should mediate. It would be the first real peace effort of Nobel Peace Prize Winner.