Source: Time
The two historically unpopular likely major party nominees have some frustrated voters daydreaming about a third party.
But as in most election years, the prospects for such a candidate are mostly a fantasy when it comes to winning the White House outright. A mix of structural challenges such as ballot access in states and rigorous requirements to enter the general election debates, the Electoral College, and the lack of a clear ideological opening make this talk little more than a protest.
Still, that doesn’t mean a third-party candidate can’t play a role as a spoiler, swiping votes that might otherwise go to Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Here’s a look at five potential third-party scenarios and how they might affect the November election. Of course, some or all of these can coexist, causing compounding effects that can’t yet be determined.
The Neocon: The Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol, one of the leading conservative advocates for an alternative to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, has reportedly settled on conservative writer David French as his latest hope. Kristol has been speaking openly about his desire for a third-party candidate for months, suggesting the likes of Mitt Romney, Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, or Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, who have all declined. More importantly, Kristol has suggested that this alternative candidate has a path to 270 electoral votes. French, a Bronz-star awardee, lawyer, and writer for the conservative National Review, fits Kristol’s ideological mode, but his unknown status—few outside of the professional conservative movement know who he is—makes an outright White House victory far-fetched. Instead, this neo-con alternative would provide a vehicle for foreign policy hawks in the GOP who are dissatisfied with Trump’s isolationist tendencies but also can’t see themselves voting for Clinton. Frustrated Democrats would find little appeal from such a candidate.
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