WATARU YOSHIDA, Nikkei staff writer
SINGAPORE — At the Asean summit held in Brunei last fall, the relaxed chatter of delegates in the lobby was interrupted by the arrival of the Indonesian delegation, led by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
Like Charlton Heston parting the Red Sea in “The Ten Commandments,” the crowd divided, falling over each other to open a path.
Indonesia is in every way the leader of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, accounting for both 40% of its population and gross domestic product. The election of populist Joko Widodo to the presidency means that he will shoulder the burden of leading the bloc.
But Widodo has absolutely no experience in national politics — a point that raises concerns.
Sitting on the fence
Asean now faces two major obstacles to maintaining unity.
The first is economic integration. The end of 2015 is approaching, and with it the planned implementation of the Asean Economic Community, but preparations aside from tariff reductions have moved slowly.
The region has built a network for goods through division of labor between countries, driving its growth. The next step will be incorporating the flow of people and money by breaking down barriers in the finance and service industries through deregulation.
Widodo has pledged to strengthen restrictions on foreign investment in banks. If this key player hits the brakes on deeper integration, it will give less-developed countries an excuse to avoid opening up.
The other issue is the territorial spats between China and Asean members.
At a debate late last month, Widodo sought to keep at arm’s length the disputes in the South China Sea that Vietnam and the Philippines have with China. He held that they are problems between foreign countries and opposed Indonesia getting too deeply involved.
A joint statement had just been issued at an Asean summit in May expressing serious concern over the issue. If the bloc’s leader reverts to sitting on the fence, it could harm efforts to work together to curb Chinese hegemony.
Beijing has already made a move. On Thursday — soon after Widodo’s election — Fan Changlong, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, met with Indonesian Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro.
Fan sought support for China’s stance in the disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, Purnomo said.
Religious tension
Widodo will also be forced to deal with divisive issues within and outside the region. Even Indonesia’s presidential race carried the seeds of a potential conflict.
In the final stretch of the campaign, rival Prabowo Subianto’s camp spread the baseless rumor that Widodo is not Muslim, but an ethnic Chinese Christian, in a bid to cut into his support base.
Although 90% of Indonesia’s population also practices Islam, it is not the national religion. The country is avowedly pluralistic in matters of ethnicity and language as well as religion. But some wonder whether this mudslinging over ethnic and religious differences may have played a role in Prabowo’s comeback.
Elsewhere in the region, neighboring Malaysia’s policies are tilting further in favor of Muslims, and friction is flaring up again in Myanmar between the Buddhist majority and the Muslim minority.
Widodo’s first job will be to heal the divisions left by the hard-fought election and unite Indonesia. After that, he has a duty to help the region overcome its exclusionism and piece together Asean’s mosaic of 600 million people.
Categories: Asia