Source: Pew Research Center
Between 2010 and 2016, the number of Muslims living in Germany rose from 3.3 million (4.1% of the population) to nearly 5 million (6.1%), while the rest of the population shrank modestly from 77.1 million to 76.5 million. Immigration has been a major factor in the growth of Germany’s Muslim population. But, even if there is no more immigration, Muslims will continue to increase as a share of Germany’s population in future decades because German Muslims, on average, are much younger and have more babies than Germans as a whole.
These findings come from demographic models built by Pew Research Center to show how Europe’s population is changing. It is impossible to predict future migration flows, so we modeled three different scenarios with varying levels of migration to project what could happen by the year 2050. Without any more migration, Germany’s aging population would be expected to decline about 15% by 2050. But if recent migration patterns continue, its overall population is projected to hold steady or even increase by the middle of the 21st century, in large part due to the arrival of Muslim immigrants.