Why French elections should matter to Arabs

Apr 25,2017 – JORDAN TIMES – Osama Al Sharif

It is a new era for French politics following the outcome of the first round of presidential elections on Sunday, which, as most polls had predicted, was won by independent centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, followed by far right leader Marine Le Pen.

They will face each other in the May 7 run-off. 

By the end of the day, the progressive but inexperienced Macron with an optimistic message had clinched more than 23 per cent of the votes. 

Le Pen offered a populist programme, winning over 21 per cent of the votes; an important gain, but below her expectations.

But what was especially surprising was the poor performance of Socialist Party candidate Benoit Hamon, who got only 6.2 per cent of the votes, putting him in fifth place behind far left and election sensation Jean-Luc Mélenchon and scandal-ridden conservative François Fillon.

This was an important vote for France, Europe and by extension the rest of the world. That was reflected in the nearly 80 per cent voter turnout on Sunday.

Following last year’s shocking Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s historic victory in the US, all eyes had turned to France in what became an important bellwether poll.

Le Pen’s ultra-nationalist National Front (FN) has been gaining ground in local elections since she took over from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2012.

She exploited the prevailing political conditions to her favour.

Certainly, the dipping popularity of President François Hollande and the ruling Socialist Party helped boost her chances among disenchanted voters. But her path to victory would have been easier if it had not been for a relative newcomer, the young and charismatic Macron, 39, whose one-year-old movement “En Marche!” provided a much-needed alternative to the two traditional mainstream parties, Socialist and Republican.

His vibrant campaign motivated voters, especially the youth, much like Barack Obama’s 2008 endeavour which was seen as a game changer at the time.

Macron is the favourite to win the run-off vote and the presidency since Socialist and Republican candidates have now lined up behind him.

But numbers will matter.

According to a poll taken after the vote, he is expected to win roughly 62 per cent to Le Pen’s 38 per cent.

 more:   http://jordantimes.com/opinion/osama-al-sharif/why-french-elections-should-matter-arabs

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.

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