This means we are in for a protracted, extended, multi-year war & we will be seeing a million + death toll – like the Iran-Iraq war. This is a huge mistake. A huge miscalculation. And it will have an enduring long-term effect in the region.

By: ayatoilet1 @ayatoilet17
I heard President Obama make a speech about the Boston bombers and he used the same exact phrase George Bush used to use: “Make no mistake about it” … and I thought to myself, the person making the mistakes right now is you, here’s why?
1. Sectarianism:

What started as a legitimate attempt by the people of Syria (all people) to push off the oppresive Assad regime and fight for democracy, got twisted into what is now a sectarian civil war – with Sunni Arabs, fighting Alawites and the Syrian Kurds increasingly staying out of it. The U.S. has turned this fight into a sectarian war…and with glaring examples like Northern Ireland in the past…it spells for an indefinite and inconclusive end. This is a mistake. The cause has been lost.
2. Supporting Al Qaeda Operatives:

In backing the Sunni’s exclusively, the West basically ended up funding fierce Al Qaeda operatives as part of the overall Sunni front. There are credible reports of Al Qaeda operatives coming to Syria from everywhere, and direct funding from many (puppet, US alligned Arab States for them). These operatives maybe a danger to the Assad Regime, and good fighters, but like the Taliban in Afghanistan they will end up becoming U.S. enemies too …in time. This is a serious mistake. If you sleep with dogs, you’ll get up with flees. Don’t sleep with dogs.
3. Forcing and Iran/Russia/Syria alliance:

More dangerous than the actual ground situation in Syria, is the evolving strategic alliance between Iran and Russia. Iran had good relations with Syria – but it was always a separate deal from its ‘relationship with Russia’. Iran’s Syrian alliance started during the Iran-Iraq war, the Syrians never cared much for Saddam Hussein. But the Russians were selling arms to Iraq at the same time, so Iran never really had a deep alliance with the Russians despite all the sanctions and rhetoric with the West. Russia on the other hand always saw Syria as its last and mist critical outpost in the middle east. NOW, with both Russia and Iran coming to Syria’s aid, a strategic relationship with Russia has been forced. Regardless of the outcome in Syria, such a strategic relationship with Russia has the possibility of completely destablizing Western plans for Central Asia – arguably even more important for U.S. interests in the long-run. This is a big mistake.

This means we are in for a protracted, extended, multi-year war & we will be seeing a million + death toll – like the Iran-Iraq war. This is a huge mistake. A huge miscalculation. And it will have an enduring long-term effect in the region.

4. A complete miscalculation of the human costs:

In the cozy buildings inside the beltway in DC, I am sure many an overpaid analyst promised a swift end to this campaign. That Syrian themselves would do what the Libyans, Algerians, Yeminites, etc had done and topple their own regime. Today, we are looking at something like 2 million displaced Syrians in refugee camps, 70,000 deaths, and the war is still going on…two years later. There is no end in site. It turns out the analysts were irresponsibly wrong. In this process, I am sure the West has lost a great deal of good-will with the Syrian people. This means any future government there – if democratic – can not be seen as too-pro-western…for the West basically has so far let down the people of Syria. This is a mistake, and it makes Syria a happy recruiting ground for anti-western forces like Al Qaeda.
5. Not treating the Syrian situation with a sense of urgency:

The thinking in DC at least is that this is a conflict that can take time and that there will eventually through a process of attrition be an eventual end to the Assad regime, and that the opposition forces need time anyway to get their act together. Time, if you will, is an asset here…let this thing go on and on. The U.S. needs to be patient. I would argue that in fact the situation in Syria is the exact opposite, the longer it goes on, the more potential it has to completely undermine U.S. policy in the region. First of all, the attrition process works both ways…there are people displaced, refugees…and they can not sit in this situation for ever. Secondly, without a real ‘win’ among Syrian opposition leaders and nothing to hand their hat on, any leadership will end up looking weak and inept. This in turn will lead to jockeying and political infighting. Since basically none of the Syrian opposition is elected, none of them have a mandate…and time will only serve to delegitimize any leadership. In the absence of a mandate, leaders only get followers if the followers believe that the leader can ‘help them win’. And so far they have nothing to show, the longer the war goes on, the less they will be able to show anything… while the situation in the camps gets progressively worse.Bottom line, the situation has to be cleaned up quickly, because time in fact is NOT an ally here – its the enemy. The U.S. is completely wrong. It should either NOT get involved at all, or it has to treat the Syrian situation with urgency, and if neccessary put boots on the ground to help bring it all to a quick conclusion.
6. Getting involved in the first place.

The Syrian civil war, is actually a strategic issue for the Europeans and Israelis. The U.S. has no vital strategic interests. Somehow, the U.S. has gotten to the forefront of this issue, while the only beneficiaries of a ‘changed Syria’ are actually going to be the Israelis and Europeans (and the Turks). Basically, what they are fighting for, is for the priviledge to pump oil and gas across syria to the turkish nabucco pipeline and feed Western Europe with hydrocarbons from Israel and Qatar. The U.S. has no NET interests to protect. For sure, part of the reluctance (and delay) in U.S. involvement has been a simple fact that no one in Washington could see a vital strategic interest, and meanwhile NO European state was willing to stand up and do anything…and at the same time everyone thought the Syrians could do the job on their own like in Libya. But now, the U.S. is pregrant. Money and Men will have to be appropriated. Like in Iraq, the U.S. finds itself fighting someone else’s war. This too is a mistake.
7. There are severe regional implications.

First of all the Syrian civil war will NOT end in Syria. For the same reasons that Israel and Qatar are involved, eventually Lebanon too will have to be ‘straightened’ out. The Israeli pipeline from Haifa will have to traverse Lebanon too. If the fire is not put out in Syria ti will eventually spread to Lebanon. On the other hand, if the West is NOT victorious in Syria, then there will be a back clash against the supporters of the Syrian opposition…and I am sure this will lead to instability inside Qatar and UAE who are supporting the Syrian opposition along with Turkey and Israel. Whichever side wins – Assad/Iran/Russia or Sunni Syrians/Turkey/Israel/Qatar/UAE/U.S. – will end up feeling emboldened and the war wil either spread to Lebanon or to the Persian Gulf (Arab) states.The outcome in Syria will have severe regional implications. The mistake here is that U.S. analysts have been suggesting that this is a small relatively contained civil war – and it will NOT be – it will spread elsewhere. For this reason alone, I see the Iranians fighting tooth-and-nail to support Assad, because they can NOT only see this spreading to the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon but eventually to the defeat of the regime in Iran. And so, the war in Syria has the same dimensions for the Iranians as the Iran-Iraq war…they will give it all they’ve got and play for an extended stale mate…but utlimately not lose. Despite all the support Saddam Hussein got, he could not defeat the Iranians. And this, my friends, means the analysts in the U.S. got the outcome in Syria completely wrong. The Mullahs in Tehran will NOT allow for U.S. desired favorable outcome.

This means we are in for a protracted, extended, multi-year war. And it also means we wil be seeing a million + death toll – like the Iran-Iraq war. This is a huge mistake. A huge miscalculation. And it will have an enduring long-term effect in the region.
Reference

http://iranian.com/posts/view/post/13559