Source: Time

By Ian Bremmer

Say this for the summer of 2016: at least Russia didn’t invade anywhere. These are the geopolitical stories to pay attention to this fall. It’s your back-to-school edition of 5 Facts.

1. Turkey, Syria and the Middle East

Aside from Brexit—more on that below—the most serious geopolitical developments of the summer centered on Turkey. Turns out that failed coups can be almost as destabilizing as successful ones. Since the attempt, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has imprisoned, detained or otherwise punished more than 40,000 individuals and cracked down further on free speech. The government announced it would release nearly one-fifth of its current prison population, apparently to make room for the new arrivals.

On top of the domestic upheaval, Turkey is in an impossible geopolitical position—and it’s not getting better anytime soon. Turkey has become ground zero for both ISIS terrorism and the Syrian refugee crisis, housing 2.7 million refugees at last count. And while some progress has been made against ISIS—the jihadi group has lost 40 percent of the territory it held in Iraq and 10-20 percent of its territory in Syria—it continues to pose a considerable threat both at home and abroad. That spells trouble for Turkey and the entire Middle East.

2. Brexit Fallout

The ongoing Syria tangle also spells trouble for Europe. It may feel like Europe is in trouble every year, but now that Brexit is officially coming, it’s truer than ever. As British officials try to decipher what Brexit actually means to them, deliberations will drag well into the fall and beyond. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has no plans to trigger Article 50, the official mechanism to begin exit proceedings, until 2017.

It’s clear that Brexit will have very real costs for the British economy when it finally comes to pass. But the intervening uncertainty is a boon to Eurosceptic and nationalist parties—like France’s Front National and Germany’s Alternative fur Deutschland—that point to the referendum as proof there’s life after the E.U. Both countries have national elections upcoming in 2017. Also pay attention to Austria, which is getting ready to rerun presidential elections in a month and is expected to elect the E.U.’s first far-right leader ever; polls show Norbert Hofer winning by a 53 to 47 percent margin.

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