Can the European Union Survive Britain’s Vote to Leave?

Source: Time

By Charlotte McDonald-Gibson/Brussels

As the results of a referendum which will change the face of Europe slowly emerged overnight on June 24, the first reactions came from eurosceptic parties elsewhere on the continent, who gleefully celebrated Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.

“Today Brexit, tomorrow Frexit,” proclaimed a triumphant Marine Le Pen, leader the French populist Front National party, using the common term for a British exit from the bloc.

Now, as the E.U.’s leaders grapple first with their disbelief and then with the horror of their union showing the first signs of splintering, their challenge will be to seize momentum back from the euroskeptics and convince the world that they can contain the crisis.

The offensive began soon after the first salvos from the populists, with European Council President Donald Tusk urging against “hysterical reactions” and reiterating that “we are determined to keep our unity.” Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the E.U.’s executive branch, took a gruffer tone at a press conference when asked if it was the beginning of the end of the E.U. “No. Thank you all,” he declared before walking off stage without elaborating.

But Europeans across the bloc will be demanding more comprehensive answers as they look to the British example and wonder whether they too should be asking for more from the E.U.

“The question is can the E.U. send a signal early on that it wants to tackle some of the bigger underlying issues that have aggravated people,” says Jan Techau, the director of the Carnegie Europe think tank, citing the Eurozone crisis, concerns about the democratic processes in Brussels, and the migration issue as key concerns. “Can they create some sort of hope out there that now the warning shot has been heard?”

The next few days will be crucial for the setting the tone, and the first challenge is overcoming uncertainly about the exact procedure for leaving the E.U. While Article 50 of the E.U. treaty says that a nation must trigger their exit by informing the bloc of their intention to leave, there is no timescale set out for doing this in the event of a referendum.

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