In the months since Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation, his successors have signalled a shift in foreign policy by reaching out to former adversaries. Egypt’s government has welcomed Iranian diplomats and embraced the Palestinian group Hamas. Many interpret such moves as clear evidence of Egypt’s desire for a diplomacy that is not subordinate to American interests.

But Mr Mubarak never entirely fit his detractors’ portrayal of him as an American lackey. In fact, Mr Mubarak’s need to please his Saudi Arabian benefactors, not the United States, was paramount in his thinking. Although he sometimes supported American policies, Mr Mubarak frequently rebuffed the US when its positions did not align with his own….

Egypt’s new leaders have inherited Mr Mubarak’s dilemma – how to realise the country’s aspiration to lead the Arab world without angering its Saudi benefactors. For this reason, the Egyptian-Iranian rapprochement will yield more photo opportunities than tangible results. On opposite sides of religious and ethnic divides, a close bilateral relationship would seem unlikely under even the best circumstances.

And, with Egypt in need of massive financial aid to offset the economic losses caused by its February revolution, its leaders can ill-afford to alienate the Saudis, who view Iran, not Israel, as the gravest threat to regional stability.

Egypt is entering a new era. But the radical policy upheavals predicted by analysts will prove to be small tremors. Saudi interests will continue to weigh heavily on Egyptian foreign policy. And that, above all, means preserving the status quo. Read original post: