Tariq MahmoodContemporary and Social Issues
21st April 2026
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Tariq Mahmood, Canada
After almost two months of fighting, the name of one location in particular is ringing in everyone’s ears: the Strait of Hormuz. Whether it’s politicians shouting expletives in all caps over social media, demanding the strait be opened, or whether it’s your relatives arguing over how important the strait actually is – needless to say, we can all feel the effects of this war.
Just some days ago (18th of April 2026), the Strait of Hormuz was once again closed. But why is this tiny bit of water so important, and how did we land in such a situation?
Why is Oil So Important?
The world needs oil, and lots of it. It’s not just transportation fuel – oil is an ‘efficient’ energy source – it’s easy to find, extract, ship around, and use, so making it the easiest option.
But oil is so much more than energy: also needed to make all plastics, synthetic rubber, medicine, fabrics – basically dozens of fundamental products every human needs.
That’s why oil doesn’t seem like such a big deal (2-3% of global GDP) but can impact 90% of the world’s economy: almost all food production (through fertilizers), manufacturing, construction, travel, shipping, etc. is done with oil as its bedrock.
When it comes to oil, not all countries are equal. There’s a group of privileged oil producers known as OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) which includes Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Iran, and Kuwait. This organization comes together to determine how much oil they will sell, how much they’ll produce, etc. If they restrict oil, prices go up; if they open the taps, the prices go down.
The above five countries produce roughly 26% of the world’s fuel.[1] More importantly, they consume far less than they produce. Why does this matter?
The United State produces 22% of the world’s oil, but it consumes 20% of the world’s oil, leaving little for export. For context, Saudi Arabia produces 11% of the world’s oil but consumes only 4%.[2] This means it can export much more oil to countries like China, which only produces 5% of the world’s oil, but consumes a whopping 15%.
Why the Strait of Hormuz is So Important
Simply put, the Strait of Hormuz is the focal point of all Middle East oil transportation. It’s very narrow – only 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest – and connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. At least ‘20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) usually passes through the strait’[3], with China and India receiving the largest amount.[4] Europe imports about 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil through the Strait.[5] Other Asian countries like Japan and South Korea are particularly devastated by such a closure – Japan relies on approximately 90% of its oil from the Middle East, whilst South Korea relies on 70-80% of its fuel from there. We’re looking at over five billion people in countries around the world, relying on oil from the Strait of Hormuz.
If these countries could find another efficient way to get the oil out, they would. They simply cannot.
You might wonder, ‘why doesn’t Saudi Arabia build a pipeline across the country to ship it on the other side?’ Well, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have such pipelines, but it’s not nearly enough for the oil needed. Furthermore, most of the oil is bound for Asia, and Saudi Arabia’s pipeline puts the oil over a thousand kilometres further away.[6]
Still, this doesn’t solve the problem for Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq or Iran. They are still stranded due to the ongoing war.
Who Stands to Lose the Most?
To efficiently break down the nations most affected and damaged by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the shortages can be split into three tiers of economic affliction.
Tier 1: Critical
The Gulf States (Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar) will be devastated by this closure. Nearly 60% of Iran’s government expenditures relies, and 90% of export revenues originate from oil and gas resources.[7] For countries like Qatar, its ‘earnings from its hydrocarbon sector accounted for 83% of total government revenues in 2023’.[8] Even worse, oil accounts for ~90% of Iraq’s government revenue, with the vast majority transiting Hormuz, without any viable bypass. Even countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who have pipelines, will face great economic struggles, as their oil industry is severely damaged, whilst their tourism industry is hampered as well.
This prompts experts to believe that total economic collapse is on the horizon for some Arab states. Whilst many parts of the world think about war from their own country’s perspective, the greatest loser in this war is the Middle East by a long shot. Whilst the world worries about oil prices, tens of millions are facing the economic downturn of the greatest oil shock in history.[9]
In fact, the worldwide of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community, His Holiness Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad (aba) spoke regarding this very topic at the beginning of the war, when the depths of its economic impact were not yet even realised.
As a Muslim leader of millions globally and a resolute proponent of world peace, His Holiness (aba) stands against all forms of injustice and all things which contravene the establishement of a peaceful and harmonious world. Thus, he stated:
‘I do not believe that such powers [Western powers] would willingly bear these losses; rather, they will recover this money from those Arab countries by claiming they are defending them.
On the one hand, their oil fields are being shut down, inflation is rising, and oil production is declining; on the other hand, they will also have to bear the costs of these defensive measures. Consequently, their reserves will diminish significantly and may even become exhausted.
Ultimately, the economies of the Arab world will suffer greatly. Although the Western world and major powers may also experience some losses, the greatest loss will fall upon the Arabs. This is something they should yet understand.’[10]
East Asia, including Japan and South Korea, will also feel the economic devastation due to a lack of domestic oil. Although both countries have reserves (Japan has ~240 days, South Korea has ~208), their entire economy could grind to a halt in a matter of months.
Last but certainly not least, countries that rely on oil from the Strait of Hormuz with little to no domestic reserves, will suffer far worse than East Asia. Countries like Bangladesh, a country of 175 million people, began feeling the effects of this war days after it started, with some people lining up in queues for 2 hours, only to be turned back because no petrol was left.[11] For Pakistan’s 260 million, petrol and diesel prices rose more than 50%, creating deep wounds in the wallets of Pakistani breadwinners.[12] The effects will only worsen with the summer months as well, when electricity demand skyrockets.
Tier 2: Severe
Countries in this tier will be directly damaged by the closure of the Strait but will not face collapse. China, for example, does possess domestic oil and gas, but not enough to allow its industries to operate as normal. Currently, 40-50% of its crude oil transits through the strait, but it also possesses oil reserves, and can receive oil from Saudi Arabia through the Saudi pipeline, which delivers its oil to the Western Coast (Red Sea). This is only a short buffer, and cannot be a long-term solution. Furthermore, liquid natural gas is truly the more worrying concern, as Qatar (one of the world’s leading LNG exporters) cannot utilise any pipeline and must suffer the closure of Hormuz. In the long term, China would certainly focus on domestic energy production in order to reduce risk, but for now, the risk is severe.[13]
India falls into a similar tier. The BBC notes: ‘India is the world’s third-largest importer of crude, but 60% of its natural gas and over 90% of LPG imports (it is the world’s second largest consumer) also originate from the region’, a factor that many are overlooking. Furthermore, ‘A quarter of its fertiliser imports are also from Middle Eastern countries and supply disruptions could pose problems for its vast agrarian economy’.[14] Other regions like Southeast Asia also face these shortages.
Some African countries also receive a majority of their oil from the Middle East, including Uganda, Mauritius, and Kenya, who receive more than 50% of their energy imports from the Gulf region. Beyond oil and natural gas, ‘A sustained rise in the cost of fertilizer could force governments in… sub-Saharan Africa to subsidize the cost of growing crops… [which] could add to debt burdens afflicting many lower-income countries.’[15]
Tier 3: Serious
European countries perhaps feel like the war’s effects have reached their gas pumps, but this war’s continuation will only worsen in the months to come. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has even gone as far as to say recently that the economic impact of this war would rival the COVID economic downturn.[16] Also notable is the fact that Europe and Asia may soon compete against one another for oil and LNG shipments. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever even noted that the best solution would likely be to ‘normalize relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy’.[17] Notwithstanding, Europe does not rely on oil and LNG from the Strait of Hormuz as others do.
South America also sources much of its oil from countries such as Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, and Colombia, among others. This makes it somewhat secure against shortages, especially due to a shorter distance to the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Notwithstanding, every country in the world will continue to feel fluctuating oil costs, with many countries at risk of entering ‘stagflation’, an economic term to describe the perfect storm of slow economic growth with high inflation. With the war’s continuation, the best-case scenario seems to be recession and struggle, and the worst-case seems to be global catastrophe.
Conclusion: Who Stands to Benefit?
If you’ve perhaps noticed, the United States does not fall under any of the above tiers, for a very simple reason: they risk very little in this war. The United States ramped up oil production in the 2010s to secure itself against oil shortages. Thus, ‘the impact of halting the energy trade from the Middle East is much less severe’.[18] When it comes to liquified natural gas, the United States is actually the world’s leading exporter – it has been increasing production over the last few years and will continue to do so for the next decade.[19] [20] Israel also sources most of its fuel from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, thus avoiding the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
Regarding this, His Holiness (aba) astutely states the reality:
‘Some analysts even claim that this [war] is economically costly for the United States. However, this remains merely an opinion. Such powers calculate everything carefully in advance and carry out thorough assessments. They would already have planned for all of this. I do not believe that such powers would willingly bear these losses; rather, they will recover this money from those Arab countries by claiming they are defending them.’[21]
When we ask ourselves, ‘who suffers most from the closing of this strait’, we must also ask ourselves who stands to benefit?
In reality, the entire enterprise of war is only permissible when others stand by and allow injustice to occur. Thus, when we observe the bombing of schools full of innocent children, when we see the struggles that billions will face if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and when a world war lays itself out before our very eyes, we must then decide whether or not we will seek out change – if that’s through donating to charities, having a powerful conversation with ill-informed friends, or sending an ardent prayer to God in the middle of the night.
Note: Many of the figures provided vary depending on the source one reads. However, the risks, complications, and outcomes remain the same.
About the Author: Tariq Mahmood is an Imam of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community in Canada and serves in the editorial board of The Review of Religions.
ENDNOTES
[1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6
[2] Ibid.
[3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno
[4] https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz.
[5] https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz
[6] https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/strait-hormuz-alternatives-oil-9.7168112
[7] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0140988311001101
[8] https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/QAT
[9] https://abcnews.com/Business/iran-war-triggered-severe-oil-supply-shock-history/story?id=132024753
[10] His Holiness Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad (aba), Friday Sermon, Delivered 6th March, 2026.
[12] https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-fuel-prices-increase-iran-war-d649ed3d36e603d57ed5a0e374858832
[13] https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/implications-of-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east-for-chinas-energy-security/
[14] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn43wllgn4vo
[16] https://www.dw.com/en/as-iran-war-rages-europe-gears-up-for-energy-crisis/a-76641027
[17] Ibid.
[19] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-approves-more-exports-major-us-lng-terminals-2022-03-16/
[20] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67484
[21] His Holiness Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad (aba), Friday Sermon, Delivered 6th March, 2026.
source https://www.reviewofreligions.org/47937/who-suffers-most-if-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-shut/
Categories: Arab World, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United States, USA, War, War crimes, world war III