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With reporting from Paul Kirby and Orla Guerin in Ankara, Jonny Dymond in Istanbul and Anna Foster in Hatay province

Summary

1. A run-off between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main challenger looks increasingly likely, after Turkey’s most closely fought election in decades
2. Turkey’s Supreme Election Council says Erdogan is on 49.49% of the vote, with his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu on 44.79%, with nearly all the votes counted
3. If neither men secure 50%, there will be a second poll in two weeks’ time
4. Erdogan has told his AK Party supporters in Ankara that he is ready for a run-off poll if necessary, but believes he can still win outright
5. Kilicdaroglu has vowed to win the election in a second round, saying his rival failed to get a vote of confidence from the people
6. The election comes against the background of soaring inflation and in the aftermath of devastating earthquakes

Live Reporting

Phelan Chatterjee and Dulcie LeeGet involved

1. Posted at 4:274:27Why do young voters matter?Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesFirst-time voters make up 8% of the Turkish electorate and their votes will be decisiveImage caption: First-time voters make up 8% of the Turkish electorate and their votes will be decisiveSixty-four million Turks were eligible to cast their vote in these elections – and five million of those were first-time voters, aged between 18 and 22.Erdogan and his AK Party have ruled the country since 2002, so these young voters haven’t known any other party in power in their lifetime.In the decade before 2002, Turkey was ruled by coalition governments which tended to change with elections every two to three years.So what will young voters – who may not care about the political problems of the past – decide? Credible opinion polls in Turkey suggest around 70% of them don’t trust the AK Party with their future.Read more here about young voters in Turkey and what they want.
3. East and West: Which way does Turkey face?Soner CagaptayWashington Institute think tankFor hundreds of years, the Ottoman Empire dominated what are now around 50 sovereign countries. However, starting in the 18th Century, the once-mighty empire entered a long and steady state of decline. Gradually digesting their state’s weaknesses in comparison to Europe, generations of Ottoman sultans started to borrow institutions, laws, and traditions from the great powers in Europe in order to revive Ottoman greatness.Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded modern Turkey in 1923 after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, furthered this model, by reformatting the country in his own image as a secular, West-facing and European society. Copying European states – the global powers of the inter-war era – in statecraft, he aimed to place Turkey on a trajectory that would eventually revive the country’s great nation status.Enter Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who since 2003 has tried to reshape the country in his own image as socially conservative, politically Islamist and Middle Eastern. His ultimate goal: reviving Turkey’s great power status. However, his pursuit for greatness for Turkey is not unusual. In many ways, it aligns with the longstanding policies that have shaped his country’s former leaders, from the late Ottoman sultans to Ataturk.However, Erdogan’s path is different compared to his predecessors. While the others folded Turkey under the West and copied Europe to restore its global influence, Erdogan has picked an unorthodox model: his goal is to make Turkey great as a standalone power first, in the Middle East, and then globally.In the end, Turkey is both European and Middle Eastern, and I believe that it will eventually settle somewhere in between Ataturk’s and Erdogan’s visions, embracing its non-exclusive identities: European and Middle Eastern, secular and Islamic, West and East
5. Posted at 3:273:27Erdogan’s AKP predicted to lose 28 seats in parliamentary electionEPACopyright: EPATurkish voters didn’t only vote to pick a new president today, they also voted to fill 600 seats in parliament.Erdogan’s AK Party (AKP) has garnered the most votes, but it didn’t do as well as its leader did.AKP received 35% of the votes, with more than 96% of the votes counted, according to state news agency AA. This is AKP’s worst score since it was first voted in back in 2002 when it got 34.28% of the votes.Since then, the party has never polled less than 40% of the votes.We can also see the number of their seats in parliament has decreased since then. In 2002, AKP won 363 seats. Since then, even though their numbers dropped in every election, the party has never had fewer than 300 seats.In the 2018 elections, that number went down to 295.Today’s results, with 35% of the votes, suggest AKP will have 267 MPs, losing 28 seats.But through its alliance with three other parties, it is expected to win another 56 seats. That would give Erdogan’s alliance a majority in parliament with 323 seats.Back in the 2018 election, his alliance won 344 seats.Article share tools
6. Third candidate Ogan to decide who to support ‘soon’
7. Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesSinan Ogan spoke to journalists in AnkaraImage caption: Sinan Ogan spoke to journalists in AnkaraThe third candidate in the presidential election, Sinan Ogan, who garnered around 5% of the votes according to both Turkish news agencies, has said his bid for the presidency changed the outcome of the vote.It’s not official yet but echoing Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s statements earlier, Ogan said a second round was likely to be held.If that becomes official, Ogan won’t be in the running for it – and his decision on who he will ask his supporters to back might make a big difference.He says he will decide on this in a few days’ time: “I will speak to the leaders in my alliance, I will go and ask my voters in the coming couple of days. And then we will make a decision and perform our duty in the next 14 days.”
9. How did people in earthquake-hit areas vote?Ece GöksedefLive reporter
10. Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesEarthquake survivors cast their vote at a polling station located in a container in MalatyaImage caption: Earthquake survivors cast their vote at a polling station located in a container in MalatyaSome 11 cities were severely affected by the February earthquakes in Turkey, and in those areas the government was criticised for not responding quickly.Eight of these cities are AKP and Erdogan strongholds, where the president received more than 60% of the vote in the last two presidential elections.According to preliminary results, votes in the area have not changed dramatically.His share of votes has decreased by 2-3% in five of those cities, while in three others, his support has remained unchanged from what it was in the 2018 presidential elections.Except for Gaziantep, where he received more than 59% of the votes, his support didn’t fall below 60% in any of those cities.More than 50,000 people died in the two February earthquakes and millions more were left homeless.
11. Kilicdaroglu vows to win election in second round
12. ReutersOpposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has just given a speech alongside the leaders of the parties in the Nation’s Alliance, also known as the Table of Six – the main opposition alliance.He said he didn’t oppose the preliminary results, but didn’t give any details of numbers and did not claim to be the front-runner.Instead, he said: “We will win these elections in the second round,” accepting that there would be a second round in two weeks’ time.He also said they wouldn’t let them be a “fait accompli,” adding “an election cannot be won on a balcony” as a reference to Erdogan’s earlier balcony speech where the president said he believed he had won.In what was again a very short speech, Kilicdaroglu also said Erdogan and his AK Party couldn’t get the result they expected:”Erdogan didn’t get the vote of confidence from the people. The desire to change in the society is more than 50%.”
14. Posted at 1:491:49 BREAKING Erdogan ahead with 49.49% – Supreme Election CouncilTurkey’s Supreme Election Council head Ahmet Yener is in front of the cameras again.He says that more than 91.93% of the votes have now been counted.Based on these results, Erdogan is ahead with 49.49% of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu has 44.79%.When asked if he could officially say whether there would be a second round, he replies: “The counting is continuing.”
15. Posted at 1:441:44We don’t know if elections are over in first round – ErdoganReutersCopyright: ReutersRecep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife Emine Erdogan on the balcony of the AKP headquarters in AnkaraImage caption: Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife Emine Erdogan on the balcony of the AKP headquarters in AnkaraWe are hearing more from President Erdogan.He calls on AK Party officials to keep monitoring the counting of the rest of the votes.”We don’t know if the elections are over in the first round. If our nation choses to go to a second round, we will respect that too. But we believe that we will finish this round with more than 50% of the votes, there are still votes to count.”He also thanked his voters for giving a majority to the People’s Alliance in the parliament.The alliance includes his AKP, the ultra-nationalist MHP along with nationalist and Islamist parties.
16. Posted at 1:221:22Final results not in, but we are far ahead – ErdoganEce GöksedefLive reporterTwitter/AKPCopyright: Twitter/AKPRecep Tayyip Erdogan has addressed his supporters from the balcony of his AK Party headquarters in Ankara, and started off by singing a love song for his supporters waiting for him.He then started his speech by saying: “Someone is in the kitchen, we are in the balcony,” as a reference to his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu who has published videos from his modest kitchen during the election campaign.He continued: “Even though the final results are not in, we are far ahead. We still don’t know the final official results, we are still waiting for the will of the nation to become apparent. While we were waiting for the results, I decided to give the traditional balcony speech in advance.”That seems to be a clear suggestion that he might not win the first round, but that he believes he will win in the second round.He also said: “Our nation has made its decision. You don’t need to find new excuses. We will see our nation’s will when we will have the final results.”Erdogan has previously given a “balcony speech” from the same spot after every election he has won.He appeared to have already started to campaign for the second round, using the fact he came ahead of Kilicdaroglu, after more than 90% of the votes counted.
17. AnalysisPosted at 1:101:10Run-off becomes most likely resultPaul KirbyEurope digital editor in AnkaraA few minutes ago the head of Turkey’s YSK election board told reporters that 87.13% of ballot boxes had been opened, from at home and abroad.He didn’t go into the latest voting but the reports we’re getting from the election board are that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has fallen below the 50% mark.These numbers mean the prospect of a run-off is now all but certain because many of the other votes will be from opposition-dominated areas. And then there are all the ballot boxes that Erdogan’s party has demanded recounts for.While Kilicdaroglu’s numbers are climbing, they are still several points below Erdogan’s.
18. Posted at 0:560:56More than 87% of votes now counted – Supreme Election CouncilThe head of the Supreme Election Council, Ahmet Yener, has now said that 87.13% of the votes have been counted.Asked by a journalist whether he could give the results so far, Yener looked at him silently and walked back into the council building.We are expecting him to give the final result when all the votes have been counted.We still don’t know when this will happen.
20. Posted at 0:390:39Erdogan expected to speak soonGetty ImagesCopyright: Getty ImagesErdogan supporters have gathered in front of the AKP headquarters in AnkaraImage caption: Erdogan supporters have gathered in front of the AKP headquarters in AnkaraRecep Tayyip Erdogan has arrived in Ankara, where his AK Party’s headquarters is based.When his plane landed at the airport, the party’s official Twitter account posted a video of party supporters waving flags in front of the party headquarters, saying: “The balcony is ready, the nation awaits its leader.”Erdogan has previously given a speech from the balcony of AKP HQ whenever he’s won an election – which has been almost every election since 2002.The tweet suggests he will give a speech again tonight, even though the final results haven’t come in yet.So far, he is the front-runner with less than 50% of the votes, which is the threshold needed to win in the first round.
22. Posted at 0:210:21Latest results suggest Erdogan ahead, but below 50%Now more than 95% of the ballot boxes are counted, according to both major news agencies.The state agency AA says Erdogan has 49.52% of the votes, Kilicdaroglu follows with 44.76%.Anka gives a similar number: Erdogan has 49.29% so far while Kilicdaroglu has 45.01%.As we’ve been reporting, if neither man can secure 50%, there will be a run-off second round.There are, however, still a few million votes to be counted.We are expecting to hear the final results from the Supreme Election Council, but we don’t know when that will happen. Stay tuned.
23. Posted at 0:130:13Young voters could decide Turkey’s futureSelin GiritReporting from IstanbulBBCCopyright: BBCSpeaking ahead of election day, Perit (L), Sude and Emru (R) all said they were planning to vote for the oppositionImage caption: Speaking ahead of election day, Perit (L), Sude and Emru (R) all said they were planning to vote for the opposition”If Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins again, life will be a nightmare for all of us,” said Perit, a 23-year-old Istanbul student, who was speaking in the days before the election.He was jailed and spent almost two months in solitary confinement for taking part in a protest at the prestigious Bogazici University over the appointment of a pro-government dean.Perit has voted only once before, and his friends Sude and Emru are among five million first-time voters who have known no other Turkish leader but Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Life for young people in Turkey has become increasingly difficult, Emru complained, pointing to soaring levels of inflation which are currently at 44% according to official figures.”You can’t afford to just study, you also have to get a full-time job to get by,” he adds.Read more here about young voters and their impact on the election.
24. Analysis Posted at 0:040:04Erdogan’s challeger shows his angerPaul Kirby Europe digital editor in AnkaraThis was not the soft-spoken, bookish Kemal Kilicdaroglu of before.This time, he came across as angry, frustrated by what the opposition sees as blocking tact by President Erdogan’s AK Party.”You are blocking the will of the people,” he said, raising his voice in a brief, but powerful address. He didn’t say who was trying to manipulate the outcome of the vote, but he clearly had the AKP in mind.He cited Turkey’s biggest two cities as AKP targets for these blocking tactics – detailing objections to 783 ballot boxes in Istanbul alone and hundreds more in the capital Ankara.Kilicdaroglu won’t win the presidency tonight. The question is how this will play out in the coming days.
26. Posted at 23:54 14 May23:54 14 MayWe are here until every vote is counted – KilicdarogluReutersCopyright: ReutersOpposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has spoken for the first time in front of the cameras this evening as the counting of votes nears completion.In what was a very short speech, he said the governing AK Party was blocking the system by filing objections to the results where Kilicdaroglu had a higher number of votes:”Don’t block the will of the nation. Let the results come in and everyone know the results.”The country doesn’t have any more patience for instability. You cannot manage the situation by manipulation, don’t be afraid of the will of the people.”He again called on party volunteers and officials to continue monitoring the count, saying:Quote Message: We are here until every vote is counted.” from Kemal Kilicdaroglu Opposition leaderWe are here until every vote is counted.”Kemal KilicdarogluOpposition leader
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28. Posted at 23:49 14 May23:49 14 MaySupreme Election Council says 69% of votes countedSupreme Election Council head Ahmet Yener at a news conference in Ankara Image caption: Supreme Election Council head Ahmet Yener at a news conference in AnkaraThe head of Turkey’s Supreme Election Council (YSK), Ahmet Yener, has spoken for the second time tonight.He says some 69.12% of the votes have now been counted.He adds representatives of all political parties are monitoring how YSK officials work on the data coming from the ballot boxes and that there are no questions over the process.Again, he hasn’t given any preliminary results, adding: “In the coming hours, when we have the results from all the ballot boxes when they have all be opened, we will share them with the public.”
29. Posted at 23:38 14 May23:38 14 MayObjections could delay final resultPaul KirbyEurope digital editor in AnkaraWhile the chances of a second round become increasingly likely, the vote count has noticeably slowed down.It’s frustrating when all of Turkey is looking for a clear-cut result but the opposition says the reason is repeated objections by Erdogan’s party to results where their opposition rival is ahead.Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu says seven million ballots have been withheld from the counting process because of these objections, and they’ve all come in opposition strongholds. It’s a tactic used by Erdogan’s AK Party for the last seven or eight elections, he claims.All it does is delay the result – an Erdogan party official said tonight that the deadline to register for a recount was Tuesday afternoon so it’s clear this saga has some way to go.
31. Posted at 23:25 14 May23:25 14 MayWhat’s been happening?ReutersCopyright: ReutersLet’s take a step back and look at the broader picture.After 20 years in power, Turkey’s President Erdogan is facing his toughest challenge, in the form of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition’s unity candidate.At this stage of the count, both sides are claiming to be ahead – partly in an attempt to keep control of the narrative, as our correspondent Jonny Dymond in Istanbul points out.The overall picture is unclear, with rival news agencies reporting different numbers.However, the state news agency Anadolu’s latest figures, for the first time this evening, show Erdogan dipping below the 50% threshold needed to win the election outright.If neither man gains half the vote at the end of the night, we go to a run-off.There are also millions more votes to be counted, so much to play for.Stick with us for the latest.
33. Posted at 23:19 14 May23:19 14 MayAnkara mayor says second round is ‘highly possible’The mayors of Ankara and Istanbul – two prominent figures from the opposition CHP – have held another press conference.Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas says: “There is a short time left to get all the results. When we see them, we will see our leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu finishing this round as the front-runner.”I should also say that there is a high possibility that there is going to be second round.”He says CHP officials at polling stations put Kilicdarorlgu on 47.7% and Erdogan on 45.8%, based on about 69% of votes counted.

source https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65475445