Biden is ahead in Wisconsin after trailing Trump throughout the night. Here’s what happened

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From CNN’s Aditi Sangal / On-air analysis by CNN’s Phil Mattingly

The counting of votes is still underway in Wisconsin. Throughout much of the night, President Trump was ahead by over 100,000 votes, but now, with 97% votes reported, Joe Biden is ahead by nearly 21,000 votes.

What happened? The answer lies in mail-in voting, according to CNN’s Phil Mattingly.

Milwaukee County, home to the city of Milwaukee, is a major urban center and the biggest county in Wisconsin. It’s also home to about 16% of the state’s population.There was “a narrower margin” between the two candidates in the county for much of the night, Mattingly explained. “And then the absentee vote came in, and then early vote by mail came in… All of a sudden, the Trump lead started to narrow.”

The same happened in Brown County. President Trump still holds a lead in this Republican county, but Biden has received a boost via mail-in voting in Green Bay, which has a Democratic base.

The same was seen in Kenosha, Wisconsin, Mattingly points out.

“The big question is what’s outstanding? Where does Donald Trump go to get 20,000 votes? The answer is not a whole lot of options here. What’s outstanding is vote by mail, which is heavily Democratic,” he added. 

Remember: This points right to the red or blue “mirage” that was expected in several states due to the unprecedented levels of mail-in ballots and early voting due to the coronavirus pandemic.

As a result, in some of the most competitive states, early results may look too rosy for former Vice President Biden, before falling back down to earth and becoming more representative of the true outcome. In other states, Trump could see early leads that slowly narrow as more ballots are counted.

This won’t be a sign of fraud or irregularities. Rather, it’s just a reflection of how states count votes. Some states process early ballots first, and will report those early in the night, while others save them for last. 

Categories: Good governance

1 reply

  1. Trump held leads in five undeclared states – Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – when all five stopped (or dramatically slowed) counting votes. Since then, a surge of postal votes wiped out Trump’s lead in Wisconsin, giving the Biden the state by as few as 6000 votes.

    Pennsylvania’s governor has stated there are “over a million” postal votes yet to be counted.

    Trump has declared that he should have won the election by now, and has hinted at a Supreme Court challenge. It certainly looks like we will see a “red mirage” – an appearance of a Trump win and then sudden Biden recovery, entirely due to postal ballots. Needless to say, rather suspicious.

    In this context it’s a good time to revisit the “Transition Integrity Project”, a series of exercises carried out over the summer of 2020 backed by the Protect Democracy foundation. Their alleged aim was to “ensure a peaceful transfer of power”, but it doesn’t take a genius to read between the lines here.

    Especially when you see the list of names involved – all current/former DNC employees and/or vociferous Trump opponents: Donna Brazille, John Podesta, Max Boot and Bill Kristol to name a few.

    In this document, released August this year, they lay out their conclusions. Including (bold in the original):

    The concept of “election night,” is no longer accurate and indeed is dangerous. We face a period of contestation [sic] stretching from the first day a ballot is cast in mid-September until January 20. The winner may not, and we assess likely will not, be known on “election night” as officials count mail-in ballots.

    Remarkably prescient of them.


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