How to make wiser judgements

p076bk0jSource: BBC News

Will a man or a woman win the Democratic primary?

How you answer these questions is not simply a matter of intelligence or education. A four-year forecasting tournament, the Good Judgement Project, tested thousands of people’s abilities to predict world events. The top performers were educated, for sure, but their performance also relied on many styles of thinking that are not measured in traditional academic tests. They also represented a mix of genders, ages and backgrounds.

Take the example of Elaine Rich, a pharmacist from a Maryland suburb, who signed up in her 60s and quickly excelled in making the tournament’s probability-based predictions. As she told NPR, world affairs had never been her forte and she hadn’t studied maths in college. But with a bit of training, she ended up performing in the top 1% of forecasters.

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