Suzanne Maloney
As the standoff in the Gulf continues, the new prime minister must work with the US on a constructive approach to Tehran
@MaloneySuzanne
Wed 24 Jul 2019
Boris Johnson is taking the helm with an urgent crisis brewing in the Gulf, where Iran’s seizure of a British oil tanker threatens to pull the UK and the international community into the escalating friction between Washington and Tehran. But in crisis there is opportunity, and the new prime minister should use his affinity with Donald Trump to de-escalate responsibly while reinforcing the battered transatlantic relationship around Iran.
Tehran has accused the tanker, the Stena Impero, of colliding with a fishing boat and violating international regulations. However, the seizure came shortly after Iranian leaders threatened to retaliate for the British seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel in Gibraltar over suspicions that the ship had violated European Union sanctions on Syria.
By punishing Iran, Trump risks a full-scale war between our two countries
The standoff has erupted in a climate of broader tensions in the Gulf since the Trump administration began ratcheting up economic pressure on Tehran. After the latest intensification of US sanctions in May, Iran-linked proxies have launched attacks on at least four tankers as well as a Saudi pipeline and various American facilities in Iraq. Last month, the two countries narrowly avoided a direct military confrontation; after an Iranian surface-to-air missile downed an American drone, Trump gave initial approval for strikes on Iran before reversing the order and authorising cyberattacks and additional sanctions.
Tehran’s provocations are unfortunate but hardly unanticipated. Its seizure of the Stena Impero is consistent with Iran’s longstanding strategic doctrine that advocates a forceful response to pressure as the most effective means of deterring even greater pressure. In this case, the counter-response is part of a broader gambit aimed at extricating Iran from the prospect of an unremitting state of economic siege imposed by Washington.
The Trump administration’s May 2018 decision to exit the 2015 nuclear deal has proven catastrophically effective, at least in terms of its impact on Iran’s economy. Reimposed US economic sanctions have slashed Iran’s oil exports, severed its banking relationships with the world and generated high inflation and shortages for ordinary Iranians.
Tehran has long experience of economic challenges, beginning with the 1979 revolution and the brutal eight-year war with Iraq that followed. And Iranian leaders have considerable expertise in mitigating US sanctions. But an indefinite American stranglehold represents an existential threat for a regime whose ageing leaders are trying to maintain control over a dynamic, well-educated society hungry for opportunity and engagement with the world.
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‘Tehran has accused the tanker, the Stena Impero, of colliding with a fishing boat and violating international regulations.’ The seized vessel is escorted by Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Photograph: HO/AFP/Getty Images
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Categories: Asia, Europe and Australia, European Union, Iran, UK