What will Europe be like in, say, 10 years’ time, when the matter of Article 50 has become a distant memory? It’s important to try and stand back because this is one of those moments when there is too much short-term comment and too little long-term perspective. The noise drowns out the signals – and the signals in any case are pretty weak.

So try this sketch, set out as 10 points.

One, there is a model for the relationship between the UK and the EU that already exists: Switzerland. The template is not a perfect fit, for Switzerland has only eight million people, but it is extremely wealthy – on most measures it is the richest country on earth. It is completely surrounded by EU countries, so in one sense the challenge of maintaining good relations with its neighbours is even greater than the one that faces the UK

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