YASAR YAKIS

March 17, 2024

Throughout human history, periods of the world having strong leaders have come and gone. Today, the international community is crossing a period where the leaders of major countries seem to be competing to demonstrate the poorest performance.

In recent decades, leading nations have been guided by outstanding figures such as Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher, Charles de Gaulle, John F. Kennedy and German Chancellors Willy Brandt, Helmut Kohl and lately Angela Merkel. We are now going through the backlash of that period. Nowadays, leadership positions are held by less impressive politicians.

In the US, both the Democrats and the Republicans have produced extremely weak candidates for the presidency. One may wonder why the sophisticated American society could not produce more suitable presidential candidates. In the run-up to November’s election in the US, the potential leaders appear to be competing to show which of them will perform the worst. This coincides with a period where other major countries have also been unable to produce strong leaders.

With the era of outstanding leaders now seemingly at an end, we are witnessing many high-level scandals involving politicians. In the US, for example, Bob Menendez, regarded as one of the country’s most senior politicians, resigned as chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations due to his alleged involvement in a financial scandal. In September last year, he was charged in a corruption case and accused of using his political influence in exchange for a luxury car, gold bars and an apartment that were received by him and his wife. Menendez’s Armenian wife Nadine Arslanian has also been indicted. More than $480,000 in cash, stuffed into envelopes and hidden in clothing, closets and a safe, was found in their home.

While the international community is going through an unstable period, especially with regard to what is happening in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, relations between the US and China are not going well either. Former president and 2024 candidate Donald Trump adopted a policy of choosing the lesser evil between China and Russia because he considered that Beijing was a bigger threat to the US.

Russia, meanwhile, had prepared the ground for a serious clash with Ukraine, but it did not expect such strong support for Kyiv would come from the West. A war is always a move with unknown consequences. The outcome of the Ukrainian war is still uncertain, but we have to take into account that Russia has extensive natural resources and can sustain the conflict for a prolonged period.

On the other hand, even though Russia has become a notch more liberal in political life since the dismemberment of the Soviet Union, it is not yet a country where individuals enjoy all freedoms. Opponents of the regime disappear under unknown circumstances. State traditions in Russia do not yet allow the democratic expression of public opinion when it comes to the question of defense. In the weekend’s presidential election, Vladimir Putin ran as an independent candidate. This is an innovation in the Russian electoral system. 

One may wonder why the sophisticated American society could not produce more suitable presidential candidates.

Yasar Yakis

In countries governed by dictatorial regimes, the holders of power usually get very high percentages of the vote whenever elections are held. Analysts believe that Putin may get about 80 percent of the votes this time.

The first pessimistic comments about the weakened resistance of Ukraine have started to surface. Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, admitted in November that “the prospect of Ukraine’s victory is not immediate,” but added that the EU’s unshakeable support for Ukraine would continue.

On the one hand is Putin’s resolve to expand the Russian-controlled territories in Ukraine and, on the other, is the West’s eagerness to weaken Russia as much as possible. These two theses show that the stakes are high.

If European countries become weary of the Ukrainian war, one may fear a decline in their war efforts. Such a reluctance has already started to appear in certain European countries. The Gaza war has divided the attention of several Western countries between Ukraine and Palestine. Both conflicts are perennial and there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

Europe has not yet developed its long-awaited security and defense concept. It is eager to do so as it wants to release itself from US hegemony, but it can neither do it without considering the US nor entirely discarding it.

A dependence on US natural gas instead of the relatively cheap Russian gas is putting enormous pressure on the budgets of many European countries. Several Eastern European countries continue to buy Russian gas, but this is not sustainable indefinitely.

France plays this game only on a part-time basis.

China remains the biggest challenge for the US. If a reciprocal escalation is triggered between these two superpowers, nobody can guess where it might lead. Comparing the populations of the US and China — 340 million to 1.4 billion — the casualties will be beyond imagination.

Trump has said he plans to impose tariffs of 60 percent on imports of Chinese goods. This will lead to another trade war.

It appears that the world needs a new generation of great leaders to emerge.

• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkiye and founding member of the ruling AK Party.
X: @yakis_yasar

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source https://www.arabnews.com/node/2478311