How Donald Trump became a sure bet for 2020 – but only a small number of people will profit

The black swan that some economists feared failed to glide in, plus the farce of an impeachment trial may turn out to be one of the more glaring miscalculations the Democratic Party has made

James Moore
@JimMooreJourno
9th February 2020

independent.co.uk

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump points towards guests during an campaign event with employees at Trump National Doral, Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2016, in Miami. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

Why does a gambler stake money on an odds-on shot months before a race is set to begin?

This makes sense if they feel their fancy is a certainty and the odds are only going to come in closer to the event.
It’s the stuff of nightmares, but Donald Trump is now odds-on to be re-elected when American voters go to the polls for the big one in November.

Punters with Betfair, the exchange where the prices are set by its punters, who can act as bookies by laying as well as backing their fancies, had the president at evens at the beginning of the year.

It’s very different today. If Trump secures re-election, his backers right now will be paid 66 or 67p plus their stake. In the fractional odds favoured on these shores that’s 4/6.

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