Syria won militarily

Sep 05,2017 – JORDAN TIMES – Hasan Abu Nimah

There is no question that the war in Syria is approaching its end. The certain outcome is a military victory for the Bashar Assad regime that stood its ground, with support from regional and international allies, against all the forces that battled his army for more than six years.

This was an unexpected outcome for many. The general, long-standing, consensus was that this war would never be settled militarily on any side’s favour.

The opposition forces were relentless in their determination to fight to the finish, which was clearly defined as Assad’s removal as a condition for any political settlement of the Syrian crisis.

An undeclared, unholy alliance of world and regional powers, terrorist organisations, mercenaries, extremist groups, religious zealots and outright criminals had descended on the Syrian scene, supported massively with arms and money.

The Arab League, quite imprudently, and in flagrant violation of the rule of its own charter, did not wait long before taking the side of the aggressor against a founding Arab member state, suspending Syria’s membership and banning its participation in its meetings.

Nevertheless, this measure had no effect on the Syrian situation, as it came at a time when the league’s gradual decline in power had reached unprecedented lows.

The United Nations did not follow in the Arab League’s footsteps.

The Arab League and the UN jointly appointed envoys to search for compromises and common ground upon which a political settlement could be forged. And there were precarious gatherings in Geneva, Moscow and Astana.

The resignation of former special UN envoy tasked with seeking a peaceful resolution for the conflict in Syria, veteran Algerian diplomat and long time UN operator Lakhdar Brahimi, who had taken over after the resignation of his predecessor, former UN secretary general Kofi Annan, was followed by the appointment of Staffan de Mistura by the UN Security Council to try to succeed where his predecessors had failed.

He has been on the job since July 2014 and has indeed tried very hard, but alas, also failed to achieve the intended target.

He may have introduced some minor temporary relief dressings, but nothing that would leave any significant visible marks.

Compromises were impossible to reach simply due to the fact that the parties to the conflict in Syria were far too numerous, with conflicting goals and equally numerous agendas.

The many forces fighting against the Syrian government managed to squeeze the regime forces hard at times, making massive military gains all over the country and controlling huge swathes of Syrian territory. This led them to believe that they were close to victory and, therefore, compromise for them was not much of a temptation.

They were also acting upon instructions from their external backers who did not invest in such a risky venture to end up granting the regime a handsome deal, even if within a political settlement.

For his part, Assad believed all long that he was fighting a legitimate war in defence of his country and his people against terrorists and foreign groups acting on behalf of hostile powers targeting his country.

At the beginning of the uprising, in 2011, when demonstrations began in the southern part of Syria and other locations, with people demanding political reform and power sharing, not many believed the Syrian narrative of foreign conspiracy disguised as a national uprising.

However, in hindsight, it seems that Assad was somehow right. Yes, there were genuine national moves at the beginning, but it did not last long before the political vultures, the opportunists, the terrorist organisations, the enemies of reform and the traditional enemies of the Assad regime set sail towards Syria to invest in a war that, as any wise observer would have expected, turned catastrophic.

Those who attribute the Assad regime’s military gains to the substantial support from Russia, Iran and Hizbollah, are right. However, no amount of foreign backing would have helped rescue the deteriorating situation had it not been for the steadfastness of the leadership, administration, institutions and Syrian army, which fought solidly for close to seven years albeit with very modest means and equipment.

Other factors helped, too. The atrocities and the outrageous indiscriminate violence in both Syria and Iraq over the last four years due to the expansion of Daesh, and the control this vicious terrorist organisation has held over large areas in both countries, awakened the world to the fact that the war in Syria was straying off course and entering dangerous zones.

This was further aggravated when Daesh started to organise vicious and deadly terrorist attacks in many European and other world locations.

At this point, many powers came to realise the urgent need to rearrange their priorities in both Iraq and Syria, placing the war on terror as a top priority, even if that meant putting off previous demands for regime change in Syria.

This turned out to be another decisive factor in Assad’s favour.

To witness the end of the war in Syria is a great regional relief, despite the terrible and massive destruction and tragic loss of life.

Peace in Syria will help the region restore some level of normalcy. It will help Jordan resume trade and hopefully normal friendly relations, as well as enable the refugees to slowly return, which will also help Jordan overcome some of the major resulting economic challenges.

Let us hope the good news from Syria will spill over and that similar good news will come out from other Arab areas of conflict.


5 replies

  1. Sorry, again, this article does not bring the FULL TRUTH. The aim of USA (as Israel’s client) was DESTRUCTION and DESTABILIZATION. This aim has been well achieved. Consequently USA (and Israel) has won (for the time being). Another aspect: those bankrolling the destruction: Saudi Arabia, they are bankrotting themselves with the stupid war in Yemen. They are tired funding all the US adventures. (stimmt’s oder hab ich recht? = true, or am I correct?)

    • Allah bless America because Amarica obey Human Right. Thousand American Muslim Ahmadiyyah can worship their belief freely. Conversely Islamic Countries do not accept Ahmadiyyah as Muslim. I suggest RAFIG should be grateful and appreciate to America, otherwise …

      • Sorry, Somi (and who-ever agrees with him regarding America…). I have worked in Baghdad from 2003 to 2011 and have seen American ‘democratization’ in real action. Yes, I may have seen ‘the other side of USA’ …

      Arab countries are pathetic, they do not have the sense of humanity. They do not have the sense of love in their heart anymore. What they have is “hatred”.
      They have been following the ancient Hadits, false Hadits. They teach to their children hatred in Madrasah or School. They turn away from Allah’s laws, Allah curse and punish them.

      Thousand years ago Jews also turned away from God laws, they served and obeyed their idol or master instead Bible so Allah had punished Jews, then after thousand years Christian turned away from Bible. Now Allah curse and punish Arab and its people.

      The RESULT OF THIS TEACHING FROM HADITS is disaster, conflict, and lead to civil war. Arab kill other Arab, just because different thought and interpretation of Islam. They do not accept and respect the differences. They serve their leaders or imam ( Hadist) instead of Allah alone ( Al quran ) Refer to Q. 9:31 c Q. 7:2-5.

      Millions people already died, suffering and homeless. Very sad, heartbreaking.
      They still claim that Islam is peaceful religion and mercy. Nauzubillah.

      The best solution to get permanent peace in Syria, Iraq, and Middle East we should learn from our old brother Christian are more mature, wiser and successful. Christian conflict between Catholic and Protestant in the past in Europe, 700 years ago, hundreds thousand people died and millions people left their home and escaped to other countries. Now both communities Catholic and Protestant can live in peace, harmony, prosperity and productive way because both sides accepted the differences and respect one another. They really obey Allah’s laws better than Muslim.

      King of Saudi Arabia and President Iran have to sit side by side and seek reconciliation then declare to the all Muslm Sunni and Muslim Shia;

      1. To accept the different interpretation of Islam.
      2. Do not judge other beliefs
      3. Love your neighbor as you love your self. Love all people regardless his race, religion and gender.
      4. Government treat all people fairly and kindly, or obey Human Right
      5. all citizen have to obey the existing authority,
      6. System of Government democratic secular, majority lead government and separation of state and Mosques. President can not take side of religion, should be neutral.

      The Lord will open the heavens, the storehouse of his bounty, to send rain on your land in season and to bless all the work of your hands. You will lend to many nations but will borrow from none. 13The Lord will make you the head, not the tail. If you pay attention to the commands of the Lord your God that I give you this day and carefully follow them, you will always be at the top, never at the bottom. 14Do not turn aside from any of the commands I give you today, to the right or to the left, following other gods and serving ( idols, master, clerics etc) then .Deuteronomy 28

      Joshuo; 1:8-9 “Be sure that the book of law is always read in your worship.Study it day and night,and make sure that you obey everything written in it. Then you will be prosperous and successful. Do not turn away from God. ( Bible) and serve your idols or your leader.

      AL QURAN
      Those who have believed and obey all Allah’s laws. (63) For them there is the good news in the worldly life (Heavent) and in the Hereafter Heavent: there is no change in the words of Allah.That is the great achievement. (64) QS 10;63.

      Ask forgiveness from your Lord; for He is Oft-Forgiving; (10) “`He will send rain to you in abundance; (11) “`Give you increase in wealth and sons; and bestow on you Gardens and bestow on you rivers (of flowing water).
      If you turn away from Allah and serve your clerics or imam, will punish you severely!

      May Allah give the guidance of the right path to all extremist Muslim clerics and ask Allah for forgiveness. Then may Allah give them His grace, love and mercy.

      EXTREMIST MUSLIM FOLLOW ANCIENT ISLAMIC LAWS.! Extremist Muslim, Nazi groups, the Ku Klux Klan and white supremacy are Fascist groups or pure Evil. They kill innocent people even childern. .

      For You from My Heart.
      All those who read shall pass on my words to others and those to others again; O Allah, be my witness, that I have conveyed your message to your people.

      Wassalamu’alikum wrwb
      With all my love

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