STORY SUMMARY
By Rami G. Khouri
The Daily Star
A New Year’s reflection on the past and coming 12 months is a useful exercise if it avoids predominantly egotistical ventures such as single-handedly anointing the best books, articles, tweets, documentaries or photos of the past year.
The armed forces will not retain power in Egypt for years to come, because military rule has been the single most destructive force for Arab national development and dignity in the past six decades, and citizens will not tolerate it except for short transitional moments.
If the current negotiations succeed in resolving these two linked issues, Iran will experience a burst of domestic economic, social and political change that will have enormous positive consequences for Iranians and the entire region.
The fourth key change taking place is in the balance of political strength between, on the one hand, pro-Israel lobby groups in Washington, D.C., that have long deeply influenced and often shaped America’s Mideast policies; and, on the other hand, the power of the American presidency and public opinion to pursue foreign policies seen to be in the national interest of the U.S., while also offering Israel ironclad American support and responding to the rights of Arabs, Turks and Iranians.
Let me first mention what I do not think are lasting developments, but only short-term issues that are exaggerated, often through the lens of interpretation by local tyrants or global media. We are not heading into a Sunni-Shiite regional war, because most ordinary Sunni and Shiite Muslims get along perfectly well if they are not whipped into a frenzy by some of their hysterical leaders.
Salafist-Takfiris will not control more land or play a long-term role in the region, because they enjoy no significant popular support or viable political anchorage.
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)
Categories: Arab World, Asia