Grows in Africa’s “Coup Belt”

With the coup in Niger, Europe and the United States are losing their last reliable partner in the Sahel as Russia’s influence grows. The development could severely inhibit the West’s ability to fight terrorism in the region

.By Matthias Gebauer, Christina Hebel, Marina Kormbaki, Britta Sandberg und Fritz Schaap 09.08.2023

It has been just a few hours since the gate to the French Embassy went up in flames, thousands paraded through the streets of Niamey and Russian flags flew under the hot Savannah sky. Boubaca Adamou is sitting in his small house in the Fada-Loubatou district with around 20 of his fellow campaigners, rejoicing in the destruction.A 54-year-old teacher wearing a green shirt and khaki pants, Adamou is an anti-French activist and a supporter of the M62, a movement eager to expel all foreign troops from Niger. In his view, the July 26 military coup that swept democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum out of office was redemption.

The mood in the room is cheerful, with the men sitting on white plastic chairs drinking tea, some smoking. They all agree that France has no place in Niger.

The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 23/2023 (June 3rd, 2023) of DER SPIEGEL.SPIEGEL International“

Bazoum was a French puppet,” Adamou says. He and his friends claim that the democratic elections won by Bazoum in 2021 were marred by irregularities and manipulated by the French. They believe that only France actually profits from Niger’s uranium deposits and not the country itself.

Now, they believe, Niger’s sovereignty is at stake. The former colonial power, Adamou explains, may have granted the country independence in 1960, but the French continue to subjugate Niger to this day. Corruption is rampant across the country, and that, he says, must come to an end.

Demonstrators gather in Niamey in support of the military putsch. Foto: REUTERS

6,000 Kilometers of Military Rule

On July 26, the spokesman for the Nigerien military stated that security forces had decided to “put an end to the regime” – allegedly because of the deteriorating security situation and bad governance.It was the fifth military coup in Niger since the country’s independence, but this overthrow is different from the previous ones. It is the latest in a series of such putsches: Almost the entire Sahel, a strategically important region of Africa, is now ruled by regimes installed by a coup, with six successful overthrows in the region since 2020.

The area some are calling the “Coup Belt” stretches south of the Sahara, nearly 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles) long, from Guinea on the west coast of the continent to Sudan on the east coast. In Mali, where an estimated 1,500 mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner Group are stationed, and in Burkina Faso, Moscow has established itself as an important supporter of the new rulers, with both countries now positioning themselves explicitly against the former colonial power France.

And once again, following the coup in Niger, the question is unavoidable: What role might Russia and its Wagner mercenaries have played? And: Could the new regime turn to Russia? So far, the Nigerien junta hasn’t suggested it will go in that direction. Shortly after the coup, it promised to honor international commitments – and on Friday, it ended military cooperation with former colonial power France.

In Niger, as in much of the Sahel area, France played a significant role until recent years. Paris released its African colonies into independence in the 1960s, yet it continues to exert massive influence to the present day through military and economic cooperation and close ties with elites. This intricate web of corruption and old dependencies in France’s ex-colonies is referred to as “Françafrique.

Russia’s Opportunity

Niger, like the entire Coup Belt, has now become a theater of geopolitical power struggles. Russia has emerged as the continent’s largest arms supplier, sending Wagner mercenaries to autocrats in need. After Mali and Burkina Faso turned to the Kremlin, the French withdrew from those countries as well.

France has been evacuating its citizens since August 1: Seen here is a burning gate at France’s embassy in Niamey. 

Representatives of the Russian leadership officially condemned the coup in Niger. But Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner troops, praised the coup in an audio message as the Nigerien people’s righteous “struggle” against their country’s “colonizers” and offered his services. The coup is a good opportunity for the unscrupulous entrepreneur to expand his business in Africa. And after his failed uprising against the Russian army leadership, he can prove to President Vladimir Putin that he continues to be of service to the Kremlin in Africa. Niger, with its rich uranium deposits, is precisely the kind of country that Prigozhin is keen to exploit.

Indeed, that is another reason why Western governments, including that of Germany, are extremely concerned following the coup. With Niger, they have to fear not only losing their most important partner in the Sahel, but also the last reliable one. Around 1,500 French and 1,100 American soldiers are still stationed in the country, and Niger is of significant geostrategic importance to the U.S. The American military operates several drone bases in the country, which it uses for reconnaissance missions throughout the region, including Libya and Sudan. Around 100 soldiers with Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, are also stationed in the country. The European Union, too, has long regarded Niger as an important partner and Brussels has long been seeking the country’s help in curbing irregular migration from Africa. Niger is home to a number of refugee camps.

Misjudgment in the West

In a strategy paper published by the German government this spring, Niger is still highlighted as a prime example of security and development cooperation. The federal government in Berlin viewed it as an anchor of stability in the region. Indeed, Germany spent years training Nigerien elite soldiers in a mission called Gazelle, which began in 2018 and ended at the end of 2022. Now, the Bundeswehr is organizing its withdrawal from Mali.

President Mohamed Bazoum: A leader in limbo since the coup Foto: Stephane De Sakutin / dpa / AFP / APThe German government’s crisis team has met several times at the Foreign Ministry since the upheaval. And whereas the French are flying their compatriots out on special planes due to fears of violent attacks, the German government has only issued a travel warning.According to an internal analysis, the anger of the Nigeriens is directed against former colonial power France and not against the Germans. One representative of the German government even expresses quiet understanding for the resentment against Paris. The source says the French continued to behave in an arrogant and patronizing manner in the region.

The Demise of Democratic Governments

Niger is one of the world’s poorest countries. The elites have a reputation for corruption, and the state has no presence in many areas of the country, which ranks 189th out of 191 on the United Nations’ Human Development Index. Furthermore, Islamist terror plagues the population, and offshoots of both the Islamic State and al-Qaida continue to spread in the Sahel. Still, unlike its neighboring countries, Western aid contributed to some improvement of the security situation in Niger in the past year.

“What we are witnessing is the demise of democratic governments in this region,” says Alain Antil, director of the Center for Sub-Saharan Africa at the Institut français des relations internationales in Paris (IFRI).In June, IFRI published a study on anti-French sentiment in many African countries, concluding that anti-French sentiment in the region is growing. But it is also increasingly being fomented and tapped by the political elites of these countries to explain grievances or their own failures. France has been turned into the scapegoat.

General Abdourahmane Tchiani has declared himself to be the country’s new leader. Foto: ORTN / AP / dpaThe study identifies another factor for the growing anti-French sentiment in the targeted propaganda spread on social media channels, a campaign which is financed and nourished by Russia. “Still, it would be a mistake to say that Russia in particular created the anti-France attitude in these countries in the first place,” says Antil. “It was already there, but it was tapped and exploited by the Russians as well as by the rulers of the respective countries when it served their interests.”

A Russian Disinformation Campaign

Since the passage of a law in April 2022 allowing the long-term deployment of foreign troops to fight terrorism, there have been several anti-French protests in Niamey as well. Experts agree that Moscow was not involved in the coup, but they say that Russian disinformation campaigns have likely influenced the mood among the populace.The group M62, which also supports Boubaca Adamou, appears to have played an important role. According to experts, the group was long ago infiltrated by Wagner people, and its actions are supported by Russian propaganda.Moreover, according to French military expert Pierre Servent, the movement pays participants in anti-French demonstrations and provides them with flags: Russian ones to wave, French ones to burn. In Mali, too, say diplomatic sources, the leading anti-French movement is co-financed through the Russian Embassy.

Power Struggles with the Military

The cause of the coup in Niger appears to be a conflict between the president and some of his commanders. Bazoum, it is said, didn’t want to extend the term of General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the commander of his presidential guard. In addition, Bazoum reportedly rejected closer cooperation with the military rulers of neighboring countries – ties that many in the Nigerien military were in favor of. A short time later, General Tchiani declared himself the country’s leader.

Destruction wrought by supporters of the coup Foto: Souleymane Ag Anara / REUTERSThe situation has been escalating ever since. A week ago Sunday, the West African economic alliance ECOWAS announced it would use force if necessary for the reinstatement of President Bazoum and issued an ultimatum of one week for that to happen. That deadline passed with nothing but the scheduling of a meeting on Thursday of this week to discuss developments. The German government considers it unlikely that fighting will break out, an assessment is based on the fact that

ECOWAS has no troops of its own. And the alliance’s major troop contributors, such as Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire, are already at the limits of their capabilities, he said.The military juntas in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which are already tied to Russia, announced they would interpret any intervention in Niger as a declaration of war. The military rulers in Guinea joined the chorus as well. It would appear that an alliance of the coup plotters is already forming.Early last week, on August 1, France began evacuating its own citizens and other Europeans. That same evening, M62 began calling for the borders to be closed and for foreigners to be held in a hostage-like state until the foreign troops left the country.

A New Anti-Terror Plan

Then, on Wednesday, a Nigerien delegation visited the Malian capital of Bamak, followed by speculation that it might have asked for Wagner mercenaries to be sent. Mali works closely with the Russian mercenary group.For Europe and the United States, the coup now raises the question of how to fight Islamist terrorism in the region in the future. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel has surpassed the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia to become the epicenter of global terrorism. Its data shows that almost half of the approximately 6,700 people killed in terrorist acts around the world in 2022 were located in the Sahel. In 2007, the region accounted for just 1 percent of such deaths.

The West must find new ways of preventing jihadists from spreading further in the region, says Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He says the international approach so far has largely been to fight them on the ground. But now, he argues, it is necessary to move to a containment strategy. “That means recognizing that the jihadist forces will continue to exist,” he says. Some might think that means giving up on the Sahel. But how can you help in the fight against terrorism in the region if you aren’t welcome?”

It’s Sunday, July 30, and an aide to ousted President Bazoum named Adamou Amadou is sitting in his home in a white undershirt and chain-smoking. He would actually like to welcome all of the West in the country. He keeps looking at his mobile phone, which won’t stop ringing, with an expressionless face. “The international community must remain strong,” he says. “And if necessary use force to restore constitutional order in Niger.” Only a minority of Nigeriens, he says wearily, actually oppose France. He says Niger needs its partners to survive. That the coup will set the country back economically by up to 20 years. Niger, the aide sitting lonely and sweating in his quiet house fears, will now descend into chaos.

With additional reporting by Issifou Djibo

source Fallout from the Putsch in Niger: Anger Against France Grows in Africa’s “Coup Belt” – DER SPIEGEL