The contours of a new deal should be ready by year-end, a former Syrian politician says
Moscow, Beirut: Russia is sending signals to the US and Saudi Arabia that it may allow Syria’s embattled leader Bashar Al Assad to be eased out of power as it seeks to forge a united front against Daesh and retain influence in the region, officials and Syrian opposition leaders said.
Officials from the three countries, as well as from the opposition, have been negotiating possible terms for sidelining Al Assad since at least June, when President Vladimir Putin hosted Saudi King Salman’s son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad, they said. Saudi Arabia is Al Assad’s main regional enemy, while Russia is his longtime ally. Since then, Russia’s whirlwind diplomacy has brought key officials from across the region to Moscow for talks.
Syria’s civil war has traumatised the Middle East, spilling into neighbours and enabling the rise of Daesh amid the turmoil. The latest Russian-backed efforts to end the conflict come as its fallout spreads westwards, with hundreds of thousands of migrants seeking refuge in the European Union.
Like every other aspect of the war in Syria, though, Russia’s policy isn’t straightforward. US and Russian officials say they’re weighing a transition plan that would strip Al Assad of power while remaining interim head of state.
“There’s a convergence on the threat of [Daesh],” Paul Salem, vice-president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said by phone. “This convergence wasn’t there when they last tried diplomacy two years ago.”
Yet at the same time, Russia is ramping up military aid to Syria, home to its only naval base outside the former Soviet Union. Big questions remain, the US official stressed, including whether Putin really is prepared to see Al Assad marginalised and, if so, whether he can persuade him to go quietly.
US intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia is set to start flying combat missions from a new air hub inside Syria, other American officials said. Putin may be betting that an increased military presence will either help Al Assad stay in power or give Russia more sway in influencing the outcome of the crisis if the Syrian leader is forced out.
Daesh controls as much as half of the country, while rebel militias backed by the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar are gaining ground, leaving only about a fifth under the government’s firm control, according to Amos Gilad, a senior Israeli defence official. That area is home to most of the population, though, including key urban centres such as the capital, Damascus.
If Putin continues to escalate his support for Al Assad, the Saudis, who are suspicious of the Russian leader’s intentions, will respond by stepping up their aid to the rebels, according to Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi commentator and former government advisor.
“The fact that the Russians are sending servicemen to Syria now proves that it’s not diplomacy, it’s war,” he said.
Publicly, Russia remains far apart from the US and its allies on Syria. Asked if Russia would accept Al Assad staying on in a purely ceremonial role, Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that “only the Syrian people can decide the fate of Syria, not some outside countries.”
If the gap is narrowing behind the scenes, it may largely be due to Daesh. Putin came to power fighting Islamist separatists in the Caucasus, and has reason to fear the rise of Islamist militants in Syria. Their numbers include about 1,000 Russian-speakers, Elena Suponina, a Moscow-based Mideast expert, has estimated, raising the threat of attacks inside Russia.
Putin is more interested in defeating Daesh and retaining influence in the Middle East than he is in propping up an increasingly weak ally, according to the Soufan Group, a US security consultancy run by a former counter-terrorism official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, which also negotiated the Iran deal and is the top destination for Syrian refugees, said on Saturday that “there’ll be no resolution” to the conflict without cooperation from Russia and the US.
While the former Cold War foes have different priorities in Syria, they haven’t always been at loggerheads. Putin averted US air strikes on Syria in 2013 by convincing Al Assad to hand over his chemical weapons. In March, Secretary of State John Kerry gestured toward the Russian position when he said the US and its allies would have to negotiate with Al Assad.
But the signs that Putin is hedging its bets are still ringing alarm bells in Washington. Russia’s naval facility is just down the coast from the Al Assad family’s heartland, Latakia, which has seen an influx of Russian materiel and advisers in recent weeks. Two Russian planes carrying 80 tonnes of humanitarian aid arrived in Latakia on Saturday, Syria’s official Sana news agency said.
Putin will do everything he can to avoid Syria being partitioned because it would be impossible to defend a rump state of Al Assad’s Alawite sect around Latakia from attack by Daesh forces, according to Alexei Malashenko, who studies the Middle East at the Moscow Carnegie Centre.
President Barack Obama said Russia’s deepening involvement will make it harder to dislodge Al Assad and find a political solution to the war.
“The strategy they’re pursuing now, doubling down on Al Assad, I think is a big mistake,” Obama said at Fort Meade, Maryland, on Friday.
Russia insists its personnel are only in Syria to help government troops operate the weapons being supplied, though it doesn’t rule out taking unspecified “additional measures” as required.
“The Russians are laying the groundwork for some kind of transition,” said Theodore Karasik, a UAE-based geopolitical analyst. “It’s just not going to match what the US envisions.”
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Categories: Arab World, Asia, Russia, Syria
I would have thought that the future of President Assad was up to the people of Syria. But anyway, in the West democracy is always only meant for home consumption and does not apply to any foreign nation.