Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

January 11, 2026

Over the past two weeks, humanitarian agencies have issued renewed warnings that funding shortfalls are once again threatening food rations for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. The most serious alerts have come from the World Food Programme, which supports food assistance for more than 1 million Rohingya refugees living in camps around Cox’s Bazar. The numbers are stark and familiar, yet the implications are increasingly dangerous.

At the height of previous funding crises, monthly food assistance for Rohingya refugees fell to $8 per person per month, down from an already modest $12. Humanitarian agencies documented immediate consequences, including rising malnutrition, negative coping strategies, increased child labor and growing insecurity inside the camps.

Today, similar warnings are resurfacing — but the regional context has changed. Aid cuts are no longer occurring in isolation. They are colliding with Myanmar’s deepening civil war, shrinking international attention and Bangladesh’s diminishing capacity to absorb the consequences.

Bangladesh hosts about 1.1 million Rohingya refugees, making it one of the largest refugee-hosting countries in the world. Since 2017, Dhaka has spent billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs on shelter, security, infrastructure and environmental mitigation. While international donors initially covered most humanitarian needs, funding has steadily declined. UN appeals for the Rohingya response have been consistently underfunded, often reaching barely 50 percent to 60 percent of required levels. Each shortfall pushes the burden further onto a country already grappling with inflation, fiscal pressures and its own development challenges.

The humanitarian consequences of ration cuts are well documented. According to UN agencies, more than 40 percent of Rohingya children have experienced some form of malnutrition, with acute malnutrition rates repeatedly hovering near emergency thresholds. When food assistance declines, families reduce meal frequency, pull children out of informal learning centers and resort to informal labor or risky activities to survive. These outcomes are tragic in themselves. But they also create second and third order effects that extend far beyond the camps.

For Bangladesh, the most immediate concern is security. Cox’s Bazar has seen a steady rise in organized crime, armed groups and cross-border smuggling networks operating in and around the camps. Law enforcement officials have repeatedly warned that desperation fuels recruitment into criminal and militant networks. Food insecurity does not cause radicalization on its own but it lowers the threshold at which coercion, exploitation and violence take root. In a region already exposed to trafficking routes across the Bay of Bengal, this is a risk Bangladesh cannot afford to ignore.

According to UN agencies, more than 40 percent of Rohingya children have experienced some form of malnutrition.

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

The regional implications are equally troubling. Myanmar’s war has intensified across multiple fronts, including Rakhine State, where Rohingya once lived and where meaningful repatriation remains impossible. With no viable return pathway, no citizenship prospects and shrinking humanitarian support, the Rohingya are trapped in prolonged limbo. History shows that protracted refugee crises rarely remain static. Over time, they generate irregular migration flows, maritime departures and regional instability that draw in neighboring states from Southeast Asia to South Asia.

Bangladesh has so far resisted large-scale onward movement by sea but pressure is building. When food assistance falls and living conditions deteriorate, refugees seek alternatives, however dangerous. This places Bangladesh in an impossible position: Tighten restrictions and risk unrest inside the camps or loosen controls and risk regional fallout. Neither option is sustainable without renewed international engagement.

What makes the current moment especially perilous is that global attention is elsewhere. Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, combined with donor fatigue and domestic political pressures in Western capitals, have pushed the Rohingya crisis further down the agenda. Yet neglect does not freeze a crisis in place. It transforms it. Aid cuts may appear fiscally prudent in distant capitals, but their downstream costs in terms of security operations, border enforcement and emergency responses are far higher and far harder to contain.

Bangladesh’s frustration is increasingly evident. Officials have warned that hosting the Rohingya indefinitely is unsustainable, not as a threat but as a statement of reality. Dhaka has largely met its humanitarian obligations, often at significant domestic political cost. What it lacks is a credible regional strategy that links humanitarian assistance to political solutions in Myanmar and meaningful burden sharing among international partners.

Ultimately, food rations are not just calories. They are a stabilizing mechanism. When they fail, the consequences ripple outward into camps, communities, borders and seas. The Rohingya crisis has already shown how quickly local tragedies become regional problems. Renewed aid cuts risk repeating that lesson at a moment when the region is least equipped to absorb another shock.

If international actors continue to treat Rohingya assistance as discretionary, Bangladesh will be forced to make harder choices under worsening conditions. Preventing that outcome requires more than emergency funding. It demands recognition that sustaining Rohingya aid is not charity. It is a strategic investment in regional stability.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim

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