William ArnssonWilliam Arnsson(Truth Good Beauty) • Following(Truth Good Beauty) • Following🌍 ❤️ 🕊🌍 ❤️ 🕊

USAid expert explains the Gaza Famine: “Deaths are going to really start accelerating now. History is watching.” – the grimmest analysis I have ever seen.

Starvation is astonishingly pervasive – touching the entire population. Typically (e.g. Somalia 2011) famine affects a subset, not the whole. This famine is purely man-made. Which means the only solutions will be man-made as well.

Importantly, a formal famine declaration is *retroactive*.

By the time a declaration is made, a full blown famine is by def’n already underway and has been for some time (again, 50% of the 2011 deaths in Somalia were pre-declaration).

So “formal” famine is a lagging indicator.

Deaths are going to really start accelerating now, and continue to accelerate until there is a cease-fire.

And even if/when a cease-fire is secured, I’d ballpark it will take at least 1-2 months to adequately scale up the requisite relief operation.

In Somalia, famine was formally declared in July 2011. Aid began surging in soon thereafter.

Still, the famine continued to widen for several more months (momentum matters) and related mortality persisted well into 2012.

Biden must begin pulling out all the stops to get this contained.

The Netanyahu government created this situation as the US continued supplying them with arms and diplomatic cover.

The US co-owns this outcome and now must apply real leverage ASAP to change course.

History is watching.

https://lnkd.in/gkkdZrda